Alan Krueger, the Bendheim Professor of Economics and Public Affairs and director of the Industrial Relations Section at Princeton University, spoke to a crowded Chapel on Feb. 13 on the topic "The Economics of Terrorism." Krueger spoke about research he's been involved with that looks at the economic dimensions of terrorism participation, and said that the oft-cited link between poverty and terrorism does not hold up under empirical study.
Professor Krueger began his lecture by reading quotes from world leaders, such as President Bush and Prime Minister Tony Blair, which connect poverty with terrorism and suggest that eliminating poverty is an answer to terrorism. Though many people assume that terrorism is a response to economic stress and poverty, Krueger said that there is very little empirical evidence for this causal link. Instead, any relationship between economic conditions and terrorism is indirect and complicated.
Krueger spoke about research which has looked at the relationship between economics and hate crimes. Hate crimes, he said, can in some ways be considered a sibling to terrorism, since the victims of the crime are chosen not because of who they are but rather because of a group they are associated with. While the first study of the hate crimes-economics relationship suggested that the number of hate crimes was inversely related to the health of the economy, later studies have shown the relationship to be very weak or non-existent. Instead, these studies, including Krueger's own on anti-foreigner violence in Germany, have shown that societal factors like a breakdown in law enforcement or repressed anger towards a group are much more influential factors.
Moving on to studies of terrorist participation, Krueger first pointed out that terrorism does not occur in a vacuum. Public opinion about terrorist activity is very important. A 2001 study of Palestinians found that two-thirds of them thought that terrorist tactics were sometimes necessary. The potentially surprisingly thing about this study, Krueger said, is that the level of support did not vary greatly based on education or occupation. If anything, college students and other more highly educated people were in stronger support of terrorism, while uneducated people more often offered no opinion. Studies of who participates in terrorism have shown consistently that terrorists are not merely have-nots, Krueger said. In fact, studies have shown that terrorists in Lebanon, Palestine, and Israel tend to be more educated and wealthier than the population as a whole.
Does this mean that poverty has nothing to do with why terrorism happens? Krueger says not necessarily. Something to consider is the possibility of "Robin Hood terrorism" – educated and wealthy elites committing acts of terrorism in response to the poverty they seen among their countrymen. Krueger has tried to test this possibility through cross-country analysis to see where terrorists come from and where they attack. His findings did, in fact, show that countries with higher incomes were more likely to be the target of a terrorist attack, and also that occupying nations are more likely targets while occupied nations are more likely sources of terror. The most significant relationship he found, said Krueger, was that nations with low levels of civil liberties are larger sources of terrorism, and nations with high levels of civil liberties are larger targets of terrorism.
In conclusion, Krueger said, the economic effects on terrorist participation bear a much greater resemblance to the model for political participation than the model for crime. Like terrorism and extremism, political involvement requires knowledge, opinions, information and resources. Therefore, while reducing poverty may have many desirable effects, Krueger said that we should not pin too much on the ability of poverty reduction to stop terrorism. Westerners should look beyond their own materialistic views, he said, and look to what the real grievances and motivations of terrorists may be.
Krueger's lecture was the first of the spring semester in the Levitt Public Affairs Center's series on "Responsibilities of a Superpower."
-- Caroline Russell O'Shea '07
