The Old Farmer's Almanac tells us that we'll be able to spot a total eclipse of the moon in late October next year. It also advises to plant your early peas between April 19 and May 4 to take advantage of the favorable moon cycle. There's also information on home remedies for soothing a burn on the roof of your mouth, tips on making wild grape jelly and advice on how old your cow should be before she mates for the first time.
And, if the Almanac's traditional 80-percent-accuracy weather forecasts are on the mark again, we can expect another cold, snowy winter in upstate New York.
"We derive our weather forecasts from a secret formula devised by the founder of this Almanac in 1792, enhanced by the most modern scientific calculations based on solar activity and current meteorological data," the Almanac reported in its 2004 edition. "We believe that nothing in the universe occurs haphazardly, but that there is a cause-and-effect pattern to all phenomena, thus making long-range weather forecasts possible."
That's all true, according to Visiting Professor of Geology Pam Price, but the Almanac's weather-predicting accuracy isn't as surprising as it may seem.
"They use basic principles of climatology," said Price, who also works as a meteorologist with the U.S. Navy. "Looking back over hundreds of years of documented weather patterns, we can come up with a pretty accurate idea of what to expect."
Price explained that upstate New York experienced a string of relatively mild winters a few years ago due to such phenomena as El Niño and sunspots. The much-publicized El Niño is characterized by an abnormal warming of waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean. During El Niño, which occurs every four or five years in varying intensities, we can expect warmer-than-normal winters throughout the Northeast. Dark patches on the surface of the sun called sunspots also can cause a slight warming or cooling of the Earth. Sunspots have been linked to increased solar flare activity that, in turn, may cause minute increases in the amount of incoming solar radiation thus warming the earth's atmosphere. The warmer atmosphere can alter the jet stream patterns.
According to Price, both sunspot and El Niño cycles indicate a return to a typical central New York winter in 2004. This year's Farmer's Almanac predicts the following for our area:
"Temperature will be especially cold from the second half of November through mid-December, from late December to early January, and in most of mid-February. Expect frequent snowfalls, with above-normal accumulations every month except February, which will have below-normal snow."
Although she agrees with this general prediction, Price pointed out that weather forecasting is a complex business. To create a forecast, meteorologists enter data into high-resolution computer models. The tricky part is learning how to recognize when the models are wrong. Lake-effect snow and "nor'easters," for example, are notorious for fooling the models. And then there are common misunderstandings of what a forecast really is.
"I might be forecasting for a 25-mile radius. If I say 'scattered showers,' and it doesn't rain at your house, you might be a bit annoyed. No matter what the forecast, it's always wrong for somebody," Price said with a smile.
After earning her bachelor's and master's degrees in geology, Price worked as an exploration geologist for Mobil Oil Corp. Not happy with that career path, she decided to join the Navy —on a dare. "When I told a few of my friends I was thinking about joining the Navy, they laughed and said I'd never make it through the first week. That was all it took for me to want to prove them wrong!"
Price spent a full year at sea making nautical charts in the Persian Gulf before becoming a command duty officer at the Naval Atlantic Meteorology and Oceanography Center in Norfolk, Va. While working on her Ph.D. in oceanography at North Carolina State University, she continued her work with the Navy in the reserves as an executive officer/training officer for the Naval Atlantic Meteorology and Oceanography Reserve Activity and a Staff Meteorologist for U.S. Joint Forces Command where her duties included briefing and forecasting for flag officers on environmental conditions worldwide. Since 2002 she's been a commanding officer, where she spends two days each month training a unit of forecasters for recall duty.
Price will spend the year at Hamilton as a one-year faculty replacement for Professor of Geology Eugene Domack, who is on leave. How appropriate that she should get the chance to experience a typical upstate New York winter!
